Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
